How to Prevent the Breakage of Eggs

EGGWorld-renowned physicist, Professor Freeman Dyson, has been described as a ‘force-of-nature intellect’ and a visionary who has reshaped scientific thinking with his skepticism about theories that are based on chains of inferences. One of his humorous examples is about an expert who has an established theory about the danger of boxes and their effect on human life and the environment. The theory is that boxes might be harmful and the use of boxes should be regulated. Now, suppose that I leave a box on the floor, and my wife trips on it, falling against my son, who is carrying a carton of eggs, which then fall and break.  The expert’s approach to an event like this would be that the best way to prevent the breakage of eggs would be to outlaw leaving boxes on the floor. As silly as this example is, it is analogous to what is happening in the world of global warming. The chief difference is that in the case of atmospheric CO2 and climate catastrophe, the chain of inference is longer and less plausible, according to Dyson, than in the example.

Dyson’s impression about climate change is that the experts are deluded because they have been studying the details of climate models for 40 years and they have come to believe the computer models are real. After 40 years they have lost the ability to think outside their models.

I suspect that this is why climatologists are feverishly working hard to prove, that warming, freezing, droughts, hurricanes, tidal waves, flooding, ice caps, deserts, monsoons, tornadoes, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, and our last ice age were all the result of global warming.

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Michael Michalko www.creativethinking.net

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